Weather Blog

Weather BLOG has MOVED locations

Brian Goode — Thu, 24 May 2018 07:54:36 -0400

The Weather Blog updates have now been moved to a NEW location.

You can get the direct link via our WAVE 3 Weather App when it is updated.

ALSO--you can go to https://www.wave3.com/weather and look to the right hand side to see the lists of recent posts.

Or if you like to bookmark to check for updates...you can go to https://www.wave3.com/category/332122/weather-blog

Thanks for your patience as we work to improve the blog to help you plan your day/month/year :)

See ya on the flip side.

Earliest Alert: Tuesday Edition

Brian Goode — Tue, 15 May 2018 09:24:03 -0400

Main focus today will be on the thunderstorm development later.

Which looks to be after 4pm for isolated cells to pop, but greater potential near I-64 after 7pm. Severe threat isn't overly high, but not at zero either. They will be more of the pulse (brief) severe t-storms with most containing intense lightning and very heavy rainfall in a short amount of time.

The coverage of downpours will continue Wednesday which most of it over KY versus IN.

Expect a near repeat of that on Thursday with the front fading out as the tropical low in the region becomes the main driver.

I still see a gap between this tropical downpour mess and our next cold front that will arrive Sunday night. But not much of a gap. We will keep fine-tuning the weekend forecast.

The video will cover all of this plus some of the summer data rolling in.

I apologize in advance for what happens about halfway through :(

Enjoy!

Earliest Alert: Monday Edition

Brian Goode — Mon, 14 May 2018 09:06:48 -0400

Near/record heat to a more tropical/rainy setup is the headline this week.

And the more humid/wet idea may hold through Memorial Day Weekend if this pattern locks in.

In the short-term---
The amount of cumulus today will determine if a) we hit 90° b) how much above 90° we get
Normally this wouldn't be noteworthy...but in this case it would make headlines in two ways.
- First 90 degree days of the year/season
- Record high would take place (current one is 90° set in 1962)

You never know when it comes to SDF as just a few clouds over the airport at 4pm can make or break the above.

We are fairly warm aloft so not expecting any thunderstorms today. A few clusters to our N/W will try to make a run at us tonight. They should fade as they enter WAVE Country, but I did keep just a very low 5% to account for them for now.

Tuesday will be a half and half day. Another hot one, but also more cloud cover and a few more triggers around to spark a thunderstorm. Therefore I kept us out of record territory for highs for now...but just below it. Record is 92° set way back in 1900. Again, clouds or a downpour near the airport in the afternoon will make or break that idea.

In general, the high pressure that is protecting us from t-storms and aiding the heat...will start to give way over the next 36 hours. As that happens, our cloud cover will become more of an issue and so will the risk for thunderstorms to develop...day and night.

At the same time, a tropical low near FL will move up I-75 this week. This will enhance the tropical downpours across the I-65 corridor and points east. We will monitor that for any flash flooding that would develop by week's end. It will just depend on the track of that low and the interaction with the frontal boundary that is dropping in from the north the next few days.

There is a break trying to show up after that takes place but could the pattern repeat itself late month?
Here is the video breakdown to explain:

StormTALK! Wednesday Edition

Brian Goode — Wed, 09 May 2018 09:21:17 -0400

We will be entering a more summer pattern that will carry us into next week. Even the tropics get involved down the road.

The thunderstorm potential returns to the forecast today...but not for everyone. In fact, some of you will not get a drop at all out of this weather system. Others....a good 1" of rain with some wind/hail. Given that drastic potential, make sure you are weather aware later today/tonight in case you are one in the path of the latter.

A cold front is the weather for the thunderstorms. It will push through into southern KY on Thursday. That should help give us a brief break. However, it will BACK north again overnight Thursday into Friday. More thunderstorms should develop along it as it does so.

It is that second passage to our north that really unleashes the summer setup. Highs nearing 90 degrees on Friday/Saturday/Sunday and now...Monday has a chance at it. There will be a front that will try to beat down this ridge of heat early next week, but there is still some debate on whether that will happen or not.

Here is the video update to explain all of this:

StormTALK! Tuesday Edition

Brian Goode — Tue, 08 May 2018 08:12:25 -0400

Enjoy today!
The pattern will soon feature a more humid and at times, stormy setup.

Here is how the rest of the week/end evolves...

Wednesday:
Warm front arrives near lunch with some fading t-storms. They will fade out/move slow enough to have time to re-develop in the afternoon. This looks to be near or just east of I-65. Meanwhile, it will start to warm again to the west ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorms will then fire in response to that heating over IL/IN and far west KY. That activity looks to move east during the evening/overnight. The support is there to keep them going all night, but not for all areas. It appears those north of I-64 have the better engine to keep them going while they should fade to the south. Severe potential is low/isolated, but not zero. I think all of our area has a chance at an isolated severe t-storm from the pulse heating of the day alone. It is good we don't have all of the ingredients lined up with this one as the tornado potential would be there. The overnight activity looks to be more of heavy rain makers with lots of lightning. Again, mainly north.

Thursday:
Front is still in the region. Scattered t-storms will remain a risk. Location of the greater coverage is still unclear as the front location is still wobbling a good 50-80 miles on the models.

Friday/Saturday:
High pressure ridge pushes in. This will reduce the t-storm risk and increase the temperature. First 90° temp is reachable.

Sunday:
90° is still reachable on this day, but the issue will be the increase in moisture levels/cloud cover and even thunderstorms later in the day. That combination may keep us just shy of that mark. Either way, it will be a very warm day. The t-storms will increase north to south as the day wears on with greater potential later Sunday night into Monday. I'd plan things with mom early at this point in case the afternoon t-storm trend increases when we get more data.

NEXT WEEK:
Shaping up to be active at times with a strong high north and east. This will keep us in the storm zone with very little daily change. Thunderstorm chances could end up being on a daily bases, mainly in the afternoons. We will fine-tune this setup more for you farmers especially that need some dry time in the fields.

Here is the video update:

StormTALK! Monday Edition

Brian Goode — Mon, 07 May 2018 08:48:20 -0400

Safe to say that "SnowTALK" has ended for the season.

I will briefly cover that in the video today.

Next up is the risk for some thunderstorms with a warm front/cold front combination mid/late week. Then we see the heat and humidity build into the weekend. We will have our limits on the heat side with such a green landscape, but I still think our first 90° is reachable.

Then the potential is there for a humid and active thunderstorm setup next week. Very much a summer look look to the upper air pattern.

Here is today's video!

DerbyTALK! T-minus 3 Days

Brian Goode — Wed, 02 May 2018 09:03:13 -0400

You know we are on the west side of a high pressure when you get the mid/high level clouds, gusty winds and warm morning lows! The downside to all of that is the added moisture into the mix. It will increase a bit today to our west with enough instability to at least mention a rogue pop-up t-storm. We don't have much wind energy aloft at all for anything more than that

That will start to change for our NW sections Thursday. We will monitor the severe weather tonight back to our west as it moves east. It will fade as it moves into less unstable air in our area. How quickly it fades is hard to say so a rain chance is in for the morning west of I-65 to account for that issue. We may be pick up the outflow wind from what fading band of t-storms as well...even if we stay dry.

We will keep an eye on the same locations for Thursday afternoon for any additional t-storm development, but signs are also there of a decent cap to keep things fairly quiet and warm! The wind would then be the main hazard for the parade.

Once we move into Oaks Day, the entire area goes unstable. This means a morning period of rain/thunderstorms. We will likely get a break that could last several hours on Oaks Day itself. The problem is the cold front still has to move through. If we get any sun breaks, that would help promote another line of t-storms by Friday evening. But that part remains "iffy" at this time.

Then we get to Derby Day. The front will be to our south...but this is where distance counts. There will be showers to the south...then a overcast cloud zone, then an all-sunny zone. This looks to range north to south with sunny, partly cloudy, overcast, showery lined up in that order on the map. Louisville looks to be in the overcast zone to start, then improving to the partly cloudy zone. Let's hope this cake recipe holds like that for the day. We will keep an eye on it!

Here is a quick video update!

DerbyTALK! T-minus 4 days

Brian Goode — Tue, 01 May 2018 08:35:25 -0400

Main focus continues to be the impacts of an approaching cold front later this week.

Until then, the warmth will steal the show.

Thursday is when the issues start to develop. The wind will be one issue that could impact the parade. Gusts over 20 mph are possible and that would certainly impact the inflatables. I think we are looking at a low-fly show at the least.
In addition, the CAP (lid) looks to break across southern Indiana during the afternoon. They will have their limits of how far south into KY they can travel. So the risk of any thunderstorm action impacting that parade is more uncertain.

We will trend that carefully.

The front looks to move in Friday morning (OAKS) and slowly cross the region into the afternoon. The speed of this front is key on whether or not we can get a second line of rain to develop in the afternoon near race time. So we plan to keep two spikes in the chances (AM/PM ) for now.

The progressive nature looks to bold well for Derby with some clearing. There isn't much cool air behind it, so the amount of sunshine will determine how warm we can get. I would not rule out 80 degrees just yet.

Here is the video update:

DerbyTALK! t-minus 8 days!

Brian Goode — Fri, 27 Apr 2018 08:23:49 -0400

Confidence in the warm spell next week continue to be high. When it starts to fade and rain chances go up, remains at a low level.

Strong high pressures like the one next week tend to hold their ground longer than what the models indicate, but only for a limited amount of time.

Before that even happens, we do have about 3-4 cold fronts passing through the region into Friday. Rain chances with each one of them are either at 10% or just below that. There just is not much moisture for them to work with. They will, however, kick up the wind speeds as they pass through which could impact the balloon events. At this time, they should just fit within the safe threshold...but it may be closer. We'll keep you posted.

The other issue this weekend is the chilly air. We should see a fairly stout drop in temperatures Saturday after sunset. Lows in the 30s for many. Frost could form, but if the wind can remain elevated, they will prevent that.

We really won't feel the benefits of the strong high pressure takeover until later Sunday/Sunday night.

80-85 looks reachable at the max potential of this ridge. That would include Wednesday and I think Thursday will be added into that zone as well.

Oaks and Derby will likely be the time periods that the high begins to break down. Of course. But I would not adjust your plans at all as even with the high breaking down, there will still be a question of moisture content during that time.

Here is the video update with the latest visuals!!

DerbyTALK! T-minus 9 days

Brian Goode — Thu, 26 Apr 2018 08:19:17 -0400

I will try to keep this updated as much as I can :) My schedule is all over the place as we get closer to Derby Week.

There have been 2 main changes to the extended forecast:

1- Lower the temperatures for this weekend a bit as the cold punch looks pretty potent. This could mean a frost for some early Sunday.

2- An apparently breakdown of the dry/warm ridge next week. Aiming very closer to Oaks Day if trends hold.

Here is the video update to explain how the pattern continues to evolve and why it is certainly not locked in stone.